02/02/2022 by Lars Daniel Garshol
Supply Growth Outlook for Atlantic Salmon in 2022 has Become Very Limited
With less than 1% global supply growth for Atlantic salmon as our current supply growth outlook for 2022, the likelihood for any scenario exceeding 2% growth, is becoming very limited.
2021 is history, and we can more or less conclude on how global supply through the year ended, and to which major markets these volumes were directed. Building up the puzzle that ends with an overall growth of 9%, EU+UK market ranks highest in terms of absolute volume growth with an 8% increase compared to 2020, followed by the impressive growth in the US (+14%). These two blocks alone, constitute 72% of the total absolute market growth, which amounts to 240 000 tonnes (wfe) in 2021.
We have just finalized the stock audit for salmon in Norway per 31.12.2021, resulting in a slight downward adjustment in our biomass estimate for the year-end, compared to our modelled status. This is primarily linked to less-than-anticipated individuals of 20G S0 left in sea. The post-stock-audit status shows a total biomass for Atlantic salmon being closer to 2,5% lower year-over-year.
Furthermore, in Chile new data show high harvest activity of the oldest generation in December 2021, implying a deficit compared to the previous generation close to 10 million individuals and a total standing biomass entering 2022 is estimated down close to 10%!
This means that the potential for growth in supply of fresh salmon going forward is further reduced. With a lower number available, combined with a situation where sea-water temperatures now are favourable for good season-adjusted growth, we still believe that a 1% volume growth from Norway and 0% growth from Chile in 2022 could be achieved.
However, with less than 1% global supply growth for Atlantic salmon as our current supply growth outlook for 2022, the likelihood for any scenario exceeding 2% growth, is becoming very limited. This supports a spot price scenario in the higher range and undoubtedly so in certain parts of the year.
What might also have a profound impact on both salmon pricing, and how consumption and pricing of proteins in more general terms will look like in 2022, are the effects of higher inflation both in the United States and European salmon markets.
This is an extraction of the latest report, Weekly Salmon Outlook. Want to stay updated on the latest industry news? Make sure to subscribe to the report today.
Image: Shutterstock by Rudi Verspoor