The Art of Predicting

How well have salmon farming companies predicted their future harvest volumes?

For several years, stock-listed farming companies have reported their actual harvest volumes as well as guided volumes 10-12 months ahead in their year-end (Q4) reporting.

The number of listed companies, or subsidiaries, who make their Q4 reports available and publish their actual harvest and guided harvest volumes have increased over the years. Parallel to this, the same companies have been part of a general trend of growth in harvest volumes. As a result, the coverage of volumes available for comparison has increased from less than 50 % in 2013, to more than 60% in 2020. Companies reporting in 2020 accounts for 931.000 tonnes head-on gutted (HOG) of the total European harvest volume of 1.507.000 tonnes HOG.

All listed production companies in Europe have now published their Q4-results, sharing their actual 2020 harvest volume and their guiding volumes for 2021. Combining the guided forecasts of all companies relevant for the European harvest volumes, a volume growth of slightly more than 7 % is indicated for 2021.                        

In 7 of the previous 8 years, the actual total harvest volumes for the stock-listed companies have been between 3% and 10% lower than the guided volumes indicated 10-12 months prior. So, what are Kontali’s predictions for harvest volumes in Europe in 2021?

During this year’s first two months, the harvest of Atlantic salmon in Europe has experienced a strong growth of 15%. Growth is also anticipated for the full year for Europe, although at a lower rate. Kontali‘s production models currently estimate a European harvest growth of approximately 9% for 2021.

Whether the guided harvest volumes will align with the actual harvest this year remains to be seen.

This article is an extract from our bi-weekly report Aquaculture Bulletin. Each issue contains a topic that provides you with an in-depth analysis of a time-relevant theme. Read more and subscribe.

Image from Shutterstock by ra2 studio