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Long-term Production forecast
For global salmon production
Understand the key drivers and long-term industry outlook
- 10-year salmon production forecast covering ocean, land-based, and offshore systems
- Scenario-driven outlook incorporating regulations, technology, and biological factors
- Quantified growth potential and supply scenarios through 2034
- Model developed on over 20 years of proprietary data and regional simulation models
- Updated 3 times a year with the latest production, market and policy developments
What it offers
Kontali’s Long-term Production Forecast provides a scenario-based 10-year outlook on global salmon production. It integrates biological performance, capacity investments and constraints, and regulatory developments across ocean, land-based, and offshore systems. Our base case quantifies long-term growth potential with key assumption on productivity and technology adoption, offering a clear view of how global supply may evolve during the next 10 years.
Why it matters
Long-term forecasting is vital for strategic planning and risk management. Kontali’s Long-term Production Forecast aids producers, investors, and policymakers in predicting future supply changes, regulatory developments, and technological advancements. By pinpointing key structural constraints and growth opportunities, it supports well-informed decisions on investments, capacity planning, and sustainable industry development.
Who would benefit
Ideal for salmon producers, aquaculture investors, financial institutions, policymakers, and market analysts seeking reliable insights into future supply and capacity development. It also supports consultants, sustainability teams, and technology developers in assessing innovation trends and long-term investment opportunities in the global aquaculture sector.
Our methodology
Kontali’s modelling framework integrates smolt releases, biomass growth, mortality, fish health, and harvest dynamics across all major salmon-producing regions. Using a 20-year historical dataset, simulation models are calibrated with verified statistics and proprietary data. Long-term scenarios include structural drivers such as RAS and offshore technology adoption, regulatory constraints, and productivity benchmarks to provide consistent and transparent 10-year forecasts.
Experience it yourself
Get started today. Request a demo or ask any questions you may have. Once our customer service team has been informed, we will get back to you!
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What is the forecast period for Kontali’s long-term salmon production model?
It offers a 10-year outlook on Atlantic salmon production worldwide, covering 2025–2034.
How frequently is the long-term forecast updated?
Three times a year—January, May, and September—to incorporate the latest biological, regulatory, and technological data.
How does the long-term salmon forecast differ from the mid-term forecast?
The mid-term forecast covers 12–24 months for operational planning. The long-term forecast extends over a decade, concentrating on structural changes, capacity growth, and regulatory development.
What data sources feed Kontali’s production forecast?
It combines official statistics, proprietary datasets, and expert industry input, ensuring accuracy and comparability across farming regions.
Who uses long-term salmon production forecasts?
Strategic planners, producers, investors, and policymakers rely on them for capacity planning, market risk assessment, and long-term investment decisions.
How does technology adoption influence long-term salmon supply?
The model evaluates the impact of RAS, offshore, and closed-containment systems on future capacity and regional production balance.