Get access to our 6-month forward-looking salmon price and production forecasts to enhance your operations
- 6 months price outlook based on production forecasts and market insights
- Base case, high, and low price scenarios reflecting historical volatility
- Supply and demand analysis with focus on key salmon markets
- Quantitative models combined with qualitative expertise on supply and demand drivers
- Weekly analysis and continuous market monitoring
What it offers
Kontali’s price forecast provides a forward-looking, data-driven assessment of Atlantic salmon spot prices in Europe, grounded in historical price data and price elasticity, supply dynamics, and future production estimates. The forecast includes a base case as well as high and low scenarios in addition to pure model estimates, offering a transparent view of expected price movements and our analytical assessment over a six-month horizon. With continuous monitoring of market conditions and production trends, the forecast integrates both quantitative modelling and qualitative industry insights to deliver a nuanced outlook.
Why it matters
Price volatility in salmon markets is significant, driven by biological uncertainty, seasonality, and global trade dynamics. Reliable forecasts are crucial for understanding how shifts in supply, demand, and external factors may impact market outcomes. By providing an informed outlook, Kontali helps reduce uncertainty for stakeholders, supporting better decision-making, risk management, and strategic planning in a highly dynamic industry.
Who would benefit
Producers and farmers can utilize the forecast to plan production cycles, optimize harvest and contract strategies, and secure greater predictability. Traders and exporters gain support in managing forward contracts, hedging exposure, and strengthening their market positioning. For retailers and processors, the forecast enables better procurement planning, negotiation of agreements, and cost management. Investors and analysts can assess long-term risks, opportunities, and performance within the aquaculture sector.
Our methodology
Kontali’s price forecast combines historical price data, production estimates, and market expertise. We draw on the Nasdaq/Sitagri Salmon Index, covering 95% of FishPool settlements, and link this to supply dynamics influenced by biological growth, harvest patterns, and risk factors. Our model produces base, high, and low scenarios, enhanced by Kontali’s qualitative insights into non-indexed trades and regional dynamics. Forecasts are updated continuously, reflecting weekly or monthly monitoring of production and market conditions.
Experience it yourself
Get started today. Request a demo or ask any questions you may have. Once our customer service team has been informed, we will get back to you!
Why should I rely on Kontali’s price forecast instead of just following spot prices?
Spot prices give you today’s market snapshot, but they don’t help you prepare for what’s ahead. Kontali’s price forecast goes beyond current prices by combining historical data, production models, and market insights to project where prices are likely heading over the next six months. With weekly analysis and continuous monitoring, we provide early signals on supply and demand shifts, seasonal effects, and policy changes that impact global salmon markets. This allows you to reduce uncertainty, make informed decisions, and stay ahead in a volatile industry.
How often is the forecast updated?
The forecast is continuously monitored and updated with weekly analysis. This ensures it reflects the latest developments, whether related to biological conditions, export flows, or regulatory changes.
What time horizon does the forecast cover?
The product provides a six-month outlook, including base case, high, and low scenarios. This offers both short-term decision support and insights into mid-term market trends.
Does Kontali provide a longer-term forecast than six months?
Yes. In addition to the six-month price forecast, Kontali also offers a 12–18 month outlook. This extended forecast provides a broader perspective on medium-term market dynamics, supporting strategic planning, investment decisions, and long-term risk management